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CLIMATEWIRE |<\/strong>\u00a0Two weeks, at least 100,000 attendees and a major oil producer serving as host country \u2014 with the Earth\u2019s future high on the agenda.<\/p>\n The United Nations climate talks that began Thursday in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, aim to get nearly 200 countries to agree to actions to limit the worst impacts of global warming. They come at the end of what is likely the hottest year on record, as study after study shows that planet-warming pollution is still rising, along with the fossil fuel production that drives it.<\/p>\n Climate negotiators and diplomats won\u2019t be the only ones crowding Expo City. The summit is also drawing royalty of various origins, chief climate officers, financiers and climate activists.<\/p>\n What will all these people be wrangling about \u2014 and does it have any hope of saving the planet? Let this be your guide.<\/p>\n At its core, the conference is about preventing the worst consequences of climate change. That means cutting greenhouse gas pollution.<\/p>\n Countries have made some progress since the annual talks began in 1995, but global temperatures are still on track for\u00a0nearly 3 degrees<\/a>\u00a0Celsius of warming since pre-industrial times. That\u2019s roughly double the most ambitious goal that nations agreed to in the 2015 Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n This year, dozens of countries \u2014 including fossil-fuel-dependent nations like China and the U.S. \u2014 are backing a push to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency.<\/p>\n A coalition led by the European Union and Pacific island nations wants to go further by getting global agreement to eventually end production and use of coal, oil and gas. How that language is crafted \u2014 whether a phase \u201cout,\u201d phase \u201cdown\u201d or something more creative \u2014 will be one measure of headway. But these calls\u00a0didn\u2019t yield any progress<\/a>\u00a0at last year\u2019s Egypt-hosted summit, and the UAE and other major polluters\u00a0don\u2019t appear on board<\/a>\u00a0with stronger phase-out language this time.<\/p>\n Failing to shift away from fossil fuels has already pushed the world past the point of preventing much of the damage from rising seas, worsening storms and spreading floods, droughts and disease. Instead, a lot of the conversation is turning to helping countries build resilience to future disasters and cope with current ones.<\/p>\n Last year\u2019s summit landed an historic agreement to create a fund to help climate-ravaged countries. And just a few hours after this year’s summit, COP28, began Thursday, delegates approved the structure of that fund and countries began pledging hundreds of millions of dollars in donations. (The U.S. lagged behind at $17.5 million, while the UAE offered $100 million, a first for a high-emitting emerging economy.)<\/p>\n What to watch for<\/strong>: Sultan al-Jaber, the UAE oil chief in charge of the talks, is\u00a0leading an initiative<\/a>\u00a0to get oil and gas companies to agree to \u201cnearly\u201d eliminate their emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. (The Biden administration is\u00a0expected to issue a final rule for its own methane crackdown<\/a>\u00a0during the summit.) This could produce real-world impact. But it won\u2019t address the bulk of the industry\u2019s climate pollution \u2014 the greenhouse gas emissions produced by burning oil and gas.<\/p>\n U.N. climate conferences are full of jargon, with words like \u201cambition\u201d and \u201clanding zones\u201d that can have big implications.<\/p>\n Here are a few that consistently cloud the COP lexicon:<\/p>\n Ambition:<\/strong>\u00a0Maybe the word spoken most often in U.N. climate talks, this refers to how far countries will go to cut planet-warming pollution. Measures in line with Paris\u2019 stretch goal, 1.5 degrees of warming, strike climate advocates as the right level of ambition. Anything less, they argue, is shirking.<\/p>\n Paris goals:\u00a0<\/strong>The Paris Agreement that 196 countries agreed to in 2015 is core to everything the U.N. climate process aims to achieve. The pact called for taking steps to limit global temperature rise to \u201cwell below\u201d 2 degrees Celsius, and to \u201cpursue efforts\u201d to cap it at 1.5 degrees. To hit the 1.5 target during this century, scientists estimate, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 and decline 43 percent by 2030 \u2014 a milestone the world is\u00a0way off track to achieve<\/a>. Then they need to reach net zero by around 2050.<\/p>\n Adaptation:\u00a0<\/strong>This can mean many things: flood defenses, drought-resistant crops, or redesigning buildings to handle higher temperatures. All that costs money, and poorer countries \u2014 usually the ones experiencing the worst damage \u2014 need the most help.<\/p>\n Loss and damage:\u00a0<\/strong>This was the subject of the most acrimonious fights heading into Dubai. Simply put, low-lying island nations and other vulnerable countries face damage they can\u2019t adapt to, such as the loss of roads, homes and crops or the wiping out of their cultural heritage. Many of these communities want the industrialized nations that have contributed the most to the problem to provide money to help poorer countries recover. But wealthy nations, the U.S. in particular, have long resisted the implication that they\u2019re legally liable or paying reparations.<\/p>\n Phase out vs. phase down:\u00a0<\/strong>The 2021 summit in Glasgow, Scotland, hit a dramatic moment when countries led by India (and backed by China) watered down the final text\u2019s coal \u201cphase-out\u201d to a \u201cphase-down.\u201d That basically means reducing use of coal, as opposed to ending it. This language isn\u2019t legally binding, but it sends important signals to governments and investors \u2014 and this time, we\u2019re expecting a similar debate on the future of all fossil fuels.<\/p>\n Carbon removal:\u00a0<\/strong>In short, getting carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere. That can be done through natural processes, such as restoring and protecting forests. Or it can mean technology that filters carbon from the air or oceans, so it can be stored underground, under the seabed or in products like concrete. That technology hasn\u2019t yet been rolled out on a large scale, but it\u2019s one possible way to limit warming beyond what switching to greener energy can achieve.<\/p>\n Unabated:\u00a0<\/strong>This word turns up a lot in remarks by U.S. climate envoy John Kerry, and in position papers by the likes of the G7 \u2014 and it points at one of the central tensions of the climate debate. Phasing out \u201cunabated\u201d fossil fuels means ending their use at facilities that don\u2019t have the technology to capture and minimize their carbon pollution. But climate activists, and advocates for vulnerable nations, fear that petro-states like the UAE will seize on this language to keep producing fossil fuels at current levels, even though experts say\u00a0carbon capture at that scale is unrealistic<\/a>.<\/p>\n NDCs:\u00a0<\/strong>These \u201cnationally determined contributions\u201d are the nonbinding 10-year pledges that countries agreed to in Paris to indicate what they\u2019re doing to limit global warming. Every 10 years, they\u2019re expected to make those pledges stronger. The next round of targets comes in 2025, which makes this year\u2019s talks all the more important \u2014 countries will start crafting their new NDCs once the summit in Dubai closes.<\/p>\n Global stocktake.\u00a0<\/strong>The Paris Agreement included a provision that countries should produce a progress report on the text\u2019s big goals. That report was referred to as a global stocktake \u2014 and the first one was produced earlier this year. Its conclusion:\u00a0We\u2019re way off track<\/a>. The COP28 agreement will be \u2014 effectively \u2014 the political response to that grim observation. Do countries care? Will they step up the pace?<\/p>\n U.S. vs. China<\/strong>: Frosty relations between China and the U.S. seem to have thawed, at least where climate is concerned. That could be good for negotiations on issues such as methane, and gives countries that have resisted moving first fewer excuses to delay, said Rachel Kyte, a longtime climate adviser.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s unlikely that international engagement will push China to agree to much more action to curb coal, a bedrock of its economic and energy security. And broader bilateral tensions over trade and industrial policy \u2014 both increasingly intertwined with climate \u2014 are likely to be on display in Dubai.<\/p>\n Green zone, blue zone<\/strong>: The sprawling, futuristic complex on the outskirts of Dubai that was built for Expo 2020 is divided into \u201cblue\u201d and \u201cgreen\u201d zones. The blue zone is the site of formal negotiations, a place for diplomats and their advisers to convene. Only people with U.N. accreditation \u2014 including media and civil society observers \u2014 can access that venue. The green zone is open to the public and has frequently been described as a \u201ctrade show.\u201d This year, it will include booths from businesses, thematic hubs and \u201csocially responsible\u201d food and beverage outlets.<\/p>\n With record attendance expected, the corporate presence is expected to be high, but it has also stirred criticism, including from U.S. and European lawmakers.\u00a0In a letter<\/a>\u00a0dated Nov. 22, they urged the summit organizers to adopt rules that would limit potential influence from the fossil fuel industry.<\/p>\n Talks officially began Thursday with the formal acceptance of the agenda, which sailed through without a battle, marking a positive start. Two days of speeches from country leaders will follow Friday and Saturday. More than 130 heads of state and government will deliver remarks, starting with the UAE\u2019s Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Several notable leaders will be absent: Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden.<\/p>\n Vice President Kamala Harris will travel in Biden\u2019s place, the White House confirmed on Wednesday. She\u2019ll be joined by senior officials from more than 20 U.S. departments and agencies, including special climate envoy John Kerry, national climate adviser Ali Zaidi and senior adviser John Podesta.<\/p>\n For some observers, leaders’ attendance matters less than what they bring to the table.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s not as much \u2018President Biden, are you coming\u2019 as it is \u2018President Biden, what are you ready to do?\u2019\u201d said David Waskow, director of international climate at the World Resources Institute.<\/p>\n A bipartisan U.S. House delegation led by Energy and Commerce Chair\u00a0Cathy McMorris Rodgers<\/a>\u00a0(R-Wash.) and top committee Democrat\u00a0Frank Pallone<\/a>\u00a0of New Jersey will also make an appearance.<\/p>\n Republicans say they see the talks as an opportunity to showcase how the U.S. is addressing energy and environmental issues. It\u2019s also a way to secure America\u2019s future \u201cagainst adversaries like China,\u201d McMorris Rodgers\u2019 spokesperson Sean Kelly said in a statement to POLITICO\u2019s E&E News\u00a0earlier this month<\/a>.<\/p>\n Congressional dynamics have proven problematic when it comes to securing money to help fund climate action in developing countries. The U.S. has consistently struggled to get budgetary approval that would help meet Biden\u2019s $11.4 billion pledge by 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cWe still have folks in leadership positions in the House Republican Party that are not only trying to slow down the pace of climate action, but deny it and reverse course,\u201d a senior administration official told reporters on Wednesday, speaking anonymously as a condition of the call.<\/p>\n How U.S. lawmakers navigate the talks, and what they aim to accomplish, will be worth watching.<\/p>\n It will be McMorris Rodgers\u2019 first trip to any COP gathering \u2014 as it will for two other House Republicans whose attendance has been confirmed: Energy, Manufacturing and Critical Minerals Subcommittee Chair\u00a0Bill Johnson<\/a>\u00a0of Ohio and Energy, Climate and Grid Security Subcommittee Chair\u00a0Jeff Duncan<\/a>\u00a0of South Carolina.<\/p>\n But veteran Rep.\u00a0John Curtis<\/a>\u00a0(R-Utah), chair of the House Conservative Climate Caucus, will be attending his third U.N. climate summit.<\/p>\nThe main course<\/h2>\n
Word wars<\/h2>\n
The tensions<\/h2>\n
The setup<\/h2>\n